IRAN’S NERVE CENTRES
SARASIJ MAJUMDER
Iran is responding this aerial ‘WAR’ launched by USA -ISRAEL Alliance in primarily in asymmetric manner. On this I will deliberate in later part of this BLOG.
First let us understand what are IRAN’s nerve centers.
- Political Leadership: First Nerve Centre.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead. His living son—the successor is alive, but hurt, disfigured, and hiding. More succession plans are in place, and accordingly on death of any supreme leader, the successor will be elected, and fight will continue.
$10 million bounty: US targets Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and top IRGC brass.
But this entire leadership is operating from a BUNKER—lowest level being 100 meter deep, located under the most populated area of Tehran, and this is about 5 km tunneled underground HUB. USA has to BOMB a large busy and populated area of TEHRAN to destroy this hide out, which may result couple of lakhs of civilians’ casualty. USA will not take that chance.
Alternately, if USA-ISRAEL can locate all the entry-exit points—those can be destroyed, and Tunnel mouths if get collapsed, these people will get buried alive. But, most of those points are camouflaged, and hidden from view of SPY satellites. A very very difficult option.
USA might have thought that Death Of old Khamenei will lead to collapse, and change of Regime. That didn’t happen. May not happen soon!
2.0 WEAPNRY &ARMY: Second Nerve Centre.
Iran probably has lost most of it’s Fighter Jets, and Navy. But, IRGC is mostly intact, and well penetrated at all levels in most of the country. They will be operating on a known terrain. If USA and ISRAEL army makes a landing on shore—they will be playing in their hands. IRAQ will not be repeated.
IRAN had about 3,000 missiles, and one third are consumed by now. Some are mid-range Ballistic Missiles left, capable of reaching ISRAEL. Rest they are using to execute co-lateral damage for USA—by attacking Kuwait, Quatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, etc. wherever USA has MILITERY BASES, and whichever Arab Country is having alliance with USA.
And they have DRONES—which they are manufacturing as cottage industry, and using mainly for attacking Arab Countries!
This is ‘Asymmetric Response’ by IRAN to USA-ISRAEL attack. They know—they can’t win areal war against this alliance.
Also, let us not ignore the support IRAN is getting from RUSSIA, and CHINA. China most likely supplied a few Supersonic Missiles, which Iran fired at Israel. They penetrated IRON DOME, and caused casualty.
3.0 HORMUZ & KHARG ISLAND:
HORMUZ is nerve center for transit of 22+% of CRUDES, and LNG of Global requirement. This is closed by IRAN, hitting global economy, and Crude price is over $100/- per barrel. India has 75 day’s reserve and also continues importing Russian and Venezuelan Crude. Almost all energy for China goes via HORMUZ, which Iran kept open for India, and China. The countries which don’t have Energy Independence—they are at peril and are also helpless.
And IRAN’s economic nerve centre is KHARG ISLAND, which USA bombed today. The whole of Crude, and LNG from IRAN are exported from this Island, connected to mainland with an array of PIPELINES.
It exports more than 1++MM Barrels of Crude per day from this island. The island stored 30MM Barrels of Crude in Large storage Tanks. The water depth is just right for anchoring VLCC. Excepting a navigation channel—most of the HORMUZ is shallow.
The island is well protected, and well-guarded by IRGC.
But—it is vulnerable to aerial attack! If it is grounded to dust—IRAN economy will breakdown for a very long time!
And world, nay CHINA will starve by ENERGY!!
USA perhaps sent that signal to IRAN!
