ELECTION TIME IN RUSSIA
SARASIJ MAJUMDER
Russia had a scandalous TSARISTS’ past, and equally infamous Leninist—Stalinist legacy.
After Mr. Putin took control—Russia was on recovery path, till he launched full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, but the broader conflict actually began in February 2014.
Mr. Putin is under the most significant internal and economic pressure since the invasion began, though his grip on absolute power remains tight, as of now. Analysts, intelligence officials, and diplomats emphasize that while a sudden collapse or coup is not guaranteed, the Kremlin is facing a compounding set of crises that put the Russian leader into a vulnerable position.
Domestic Discontent & Dwindling Popularity & Plunging Approval Ratings: His approval rating fell to a historic low of 66%.
The War Comes Home: Ukraine’s intensive “deep strike” campaign uses long-range drones to hit targets well inside Russia.
Disrupted Normalcy: Air raid alerts, drone-related flight cancellations at Moscow airports, and rolling blackouts have shattered the illusion of a distant war.
Civil Aviation Threats: Drone presence in Russian airspace has triggered travel disruptions and airline cancellations.
Economic Strain & Mobilization Risks–Fragile Economy: Constant strikes on Russian oil refineries, fuel hubs, and industrial infrastructure have sparked localized fuel shortages.
Fears of Mobilization: European intelligence reports that Putin is preparing for a new wave of troop mobilization.
Localized Coercion: To minimize public blowback, regional governments use economic coercion to force an estimated 400,000 additional men (estimated) into the military.
Crumbling Elite Confidence & Elite Skepticism: Powerful figures within the Russian political and business landscape are questioning the lack of clear battlefield gains and the absence of a long-term strategy.
Intelligence Warnings: The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service reports that individuals with the actual power to act are questioning how to end the war, raising the feasibility of an abrupt political overthrow.
Geopolitical & Escalation—Pressures—Sanctions & Stagnation: U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s largest oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil, severely pinch Putin’s war chest.
Asymmetric Escalation: In response to being cornered, Russia has intensified cyberattacks against NATO infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and European factory sabotage. Despite these major headwinds, The New York Times notes that Putin shows no outward signs of backing down, continuing to wager that he can outlast Ukraine and its allies regardless of the toll on the Russian population.
Russia’s overall economic growth is projected to collapse to 0.4% as high-ranking officials warn that putting the country entirely on a war footing is driving the economy berserk. Concurrently, Russian leadership faces persistent tactical challenges on the battlefield and rising domestic war fatigue ahead of upcoming parliamentary elections.
Many non-military sectors are stagnating or shrinking.
Russia’s next parliamentary election is scheduled for September 18–20, 2026. President Vladimir Putin signed a decree officially scheduling the main election date for September 20, 2026 to determine all 450 seats in the State Duma.
Election Key Facts:
Duration: The voting window spans three days from September 18 to September 20, 2026.
The Stakes: All 450 seats in the State Duma (the lower house of parliament) are up for renewal.
Voting System: A mixed system where 225 legislators are elected via party-list proportional representation and the remaining 225 are elected from single-member constituencies.
Ruling Party: United Russia enters the vote seeking to maintain its legislative majority.
Who is second most powerful man in Russia: In terms of the official, constitutional hierarchy, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is the second most powerful man in Russia. Under the Russian constitution, if President Vladimir Putin becomes incapacitated, dies, or resigns, the Prime Minister automatically takes over as the Acting President of the Russian Federation. However, because power in Russia is largely defined by informal networks, security ties (SILOVIKI), and proximity to Putin, several other figures wield immense practical influence:
The Constitutional Second-in-Command–Mikhail Mishustin (Prime Minister): As the head of government, Mishustin runs Russia’s daily economic policy and civil bureaucracy. While he is historically viewed more as a technocrat than an aggressive political heavyweight, his control over the economy during wartime makes him indispensable.
The Security and Hardline Heavyweights Nikolai Patrushev (Presidential Aide & Former Security Council Chief): Despite a formal reassignment out of the Security Council in 2024, Patrushev remains one of Putin’s closest ideological confidants. A former KGB colleague of Putin, he is widely viewed as the chief architect of Russia’s anti-Western national security strategy.
Alexander Bortnikov (Director of the FSB): As head of the Federal Security Service, Bortnikov commands the vast domestic spy and security apparatus that keeps the Russian population in check and guarantees the regime’s survival.
The Economic and Internal Power BrokersIgor Sechin (CEO of Rosneft): Often referred to by political analysts as the “Darth Vader” of the Kremlin, Sechin leads the state oil giant Rosneft. He acts as the informal leader of the Kremlin’s conservative economic faction.
Sergei Kiriyenko (First Deputy Chief of Staff): Kiriyenko controls Russia’s internal domestic politics. He manages everything from regional elections to the administration of occupied territories in Ukraine.
The Rising Generation–Alexey Dyumin: Putin’s former chief bodyguard and a trusted military aide, Dyumin is increasingly highlighted by intelligence organizations as a critical figure in potential future transition scenarios.
However, Vladimir Putin can continue in power after his current term ends in 2030 because constitutional changes allow him to run for one more six-year term.
SOURCES:
- Izvestia – English versions are the prime source.
- Other Public domains.
