QUO VADIS IRAN, DOMINI??
SARASIJ MAJUMDER
WHAT HAPPENED, USA: —
- After Late Mr. Ayatollah Khomeini assumed power in 1979—he decided to be a DICTATOR, with total religious, military, and political authority in supreme manner. He became Supreme Command.
- He devised an organogram for that purpose and created ‘IRGC’—who are most loyal, lethal, orthodox Shiaites, and placed them directly under him. Excepting him—they have or had no ‘BOSS’.
- Incase Supreme command is annihilated, (happened on 28th February) IRGC will take control, and continue to fight the war. President reports to IRGC.
- Israel, and USA eliminated the first level, and most of the second level commands of IRGC. Still the lower order is taking control, and fighting.
- AXIS OF RESISTANCE:
- Hezbollah (Lebanon): Iran’s most potent ally in the region.
- Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF – Iraq): A coalition of Shia militias, including Kata’ib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, responsible for attacks on U.S. bases in GULF.
- Houthis (Yemen): Aligned groups supporting Iran’s interests in the Arabian Peninsula, and operating in Red Sea.
- Hamas & Palestinian Islamic Jihad: Supported for actions against Israel.
Prognosis—1:
Iran can’t stop fighting. Iran can’t negotiate. This WAR MACHINE has no command button at present which can be pressed to stop and negotiate.
USA wants to disarm IRAN’s Nuclear program with Ballistic Missile, and then to withdraw. And want to do it fast. But it is not possible to recover or destroy the 450 kg of 60% enriched Uranium without setting BOOT. It is buried deep under collapsed BUNKER, inside a Hill.
Here comes Stage-II: Regime change option. USA thought—with a pro USA regime established, the Uranium can be collected after necessary excavation being done by New Regime.
After eliminating 36,000 Iranis in a recent Civil war in December last year and early January this year by the Irani MILITIA, Basij Resistance Force, a volunteer paramilitary under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responsible for suppressing dissent and enforcing ideological conformity, a repeat Civil war is a Pipe Dream, and that too without a Mass Leader to lead. Son of SHAH is ineffective!
Some intelligence information indicates that Iran’s Launcher, Drones, and Missiles are only 50% consumed, or destroyed! If so—it is still a month’s job! I guess—China is supplying arms and ammunition to IRAN, after painting it GREEN through KKH, via Pakistan.
WHAT HAPPENED, ISRAEL:
- Israel is very clear. Iran’s first enemy is Israel. Iran will fire the first Nuclear Bomb on Israel, whenever they will be ready!
- Israel can’t allow this to happen. For them—this is a question of their existence.
- Iran has created several Proxies—HAMAS, HEZBOLLAS, AND HUTHIS. Added to this, is Iraqi militants. All are ‘BLEEDING’ Israel.
PROGNOSIS-2: –
ISRAEL will not stop, still it forces IRAN to embrace stone age—which Mr. Trump keeps on saying.
HAMAS is almost eliminated, HEZBOLLA is half done in. Iran is under active attack. USA & UK at present is controlling HUTHIS.
WHAT HAPPENED, GULF COUNTRIES: –
- They were sleeping like Camels putting head inside sand. Iran established that there is no MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD by attacking them! Qatar is most affected.
- They have understood that Israel is not their enemy, and Iran is not friend.
PROGNOSIS-3:-
These Gulf countries must attack IRAN in the coastal region of HORMUZ strait, and force open HORMUZ for all. They can take EU support.
If required, they should collaborate, employ and arm ‘MERCINARIES’ to do the job.
HORMUZ BLOCKADE:
- Hormuz is partly open now for 5 countries including INDIA.
- CHINA is more affected due to Hormuz problem than India, along with Gulf Countries who export through Hormuz, and small countries who import through Hormuz.
- USA, and ISRAEL is not affected. India is minimally affected. EU is affected.
PROGNOSIS—4: –
EU & GCC must take leadership to open HORMUZ, by Dialogue, or Force. China also may help in Dialogue.
PROGNOSIS—5: –
RUSSIA is providing intelligence support to IRAN, and want to keep USA busy with IRAN, so that it can get freer hand in UKRAINE, but Russia can’t achieve anything more there.
Russia’s refineries are largely destroyed by UKRAINE. They are under shutdown, and REPAIR, and hence RUSSIA can only sell CRUDE now. EU is affected by this. Good for INDIA. INDIA exported refined petroleum products $65.4B—2024 data. It may be more now.
PRONOSIS– 6: –
USA must take over KHARG ISLAND. That will stop money going to IRAN through sale of CRUDE, OIL, GAS—etc. Their fighting capability will reduce.
What Emerge:
THE WAR WILL NOT END AND SITUATION WILL NOT IMPROVE SOON. But the unfortunate part is—TRUMP & USA is doing a good job, but narrative spread by EU, CHINA, RUSSIA, AND even INSIDE USA – all are negative!! Trump shall forget tweeting which is not effective.
