FEW HARD WORDS ABOUT IRAN WAR
SARASIJ MAJUMDER
I am not an admirer of USA—was never. Though I visited the country four times, and stayed enough to get insight into the Americans, their minds, and their way of life.
However, contrary to popular belief, Mr. Trump the present USA president, is not an ‘EXCEPTION’—rather ‘EXTENSION’ of the same USA system that bombed Hiroshima, and Nagasaki, 81 years ago, August-1945.
USA + ISRAEL laid a ‘TRAP’, (Israel played a major part) when in February 2026, the United States and Iran were engaged in high-stakes indirect nuclear negotiations aimed at averting a full-scale military conflict. These talks, mediated primarily by Oman, were the first high-level diplomatic engagements since major military engagement in June 2025.
Despite claims of “significant progress” and reaching broad “guiding principles” for a potential deal, (apparently seems to me a media propaganda) the negotiations ultimately failed to reach a breakthrough. I present below the gist:
Key Points of Contention:
Uranium Enrichment: Iran proposed lowering enrichment to 3.6% (from 60%) for several years in exchange for sanctions relief. The Trump administration insisted on zero enrichment and the complete dismantling of Iran’s enrichment infrastructure.
Sunset Clauses: US negotiators totally rejected any “sunset clauses” (expiration dates), demanding a permanent end to Iran’s nuclear ambition, and capabilities.
Different Agenda: Iran sought a deal limited strictly to nuclear issues, while the US pushed for a “comprehensive framework” that also included Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for regional proxy groups.
As Hypersonic Missiles didn’t appear in the discussion, it seems—both Mossad, and CIA were ignorant of this. That is why I think and said before that these are Chinese supply.
Without reaching agreement, at this point—the discussion ended.
1) Now to re-open (Rather ‘MANIPULATE’) discussion, or to find out a go-ahead on the US offer required further internal deliberations by the Iranian side at highest levels, and in details at Tehran.
2) Iran had to held a meeting to discuss and develop a further negotiation strategy. This required to assemble physically at a safe point.
3) Islamic Republic of Iran fell for the same trick as Hezbollah’s Nasrallah.
4) The USA/ISRAEL struck while the meeting was going on, killing many Army Officials, including Khamenei, and injuring his son.
What Emerge:
—) Negotiations were used as a bait to gather them all at one place where they felt safe, coming out of their respective ‘HIDE OUT’ in Tehran.
—) Then destroy them.
It’s the 2nd or 3rd time this RUSE has worked.
However—I don’t find any wrong in this ‘TACTIS’ adopted. Iran is a state run by some sons of IBLISH!
Actually—USA should have finished the job started by them in JUNE-2025. It would have been lot easier then. By a half-hearted attack- USA got partially exposed, and IRAN got time to arm itself to the TEETH!
Based on my study, mainly CNN, NYT, and ISRAEL TIMES, I see three end options, as explained below:
- Iran will get Militarily destroyed, but retain its political system more or less intact, as a rabid ISLAMIC STATE. IRGC and Basij Militia will be completely neutralized. Iranians then, may or may not cause a regime change through a civil war. However—strict sanctions shall be imposed to ruin IRAN economically, till the regime is changed. More than 36,500 Iranians were killed by IRGC and Basij Militia security forces during the January 8-9 crackdown on nationwide protests, making it the deadliest two-day civilian massacre in history, according to documents reviewed by Iran International’s Editorial Board. That proves that a large segment of people wants to change the REGIME. This has more than 50 % chance, if USA sees through the attack they started, and neutralize the present regime.
- Trump may declare victory unilaterally and withdraw! He is not a long-term player. This is my worst fear. Mr. Trump changes his speech every day, may be several times! In medical Jargon—it is called ‘DELIRIUM’! He might be overstressed! But after Arab meeting, and EU partially joining him—he should feel stronger! Now—if he quits at this stage, —IRAN will retain everything and will grow stronger. It has 30% probability.
- Third option is simple. USA-ISRAEL forces IRAN to surrender. Best solution! USA establishes a democratic Non-Islamic Secular Regime. Probability of this scenario is less than 20%.
Mr. Trump has issued 48-hour ultimatum to IRAN. Let us see what happens next.
But—Israel must act vigorously within this 48-hour window! And if USA quits—Israel shall finish South Pars, the action they were forced to halt!
IMAGE: Tehran, after first assault, Satellite Image from Google.
